Skip to content

VERIFICATION TAGGING RULES & STANDARDS (v2 — corrected)

For Ottoman Empire & Middle East Presentation Public Launch

Purpose: Explicit criteria for applying confidence tags to every factual claim
Audience: Claude (or other agent) applying tags systematically
Standard: Every factual statement tagged; no exceptions

TAGGING CATEGORIES

[VERIFIED via primary sources]

Use when: A claim is directly documented in primary sources (archaeological, textual, administrative records)

Examples: - "Ottoman Empire controlled territory from Balkans to Arabian Peninsula in 1913" → Primary: Ottoman census records, maps, administrative documents - "First Zionist Congress held 1897" → Primary: Zionist Congress records - "Sykes-Picot Agreement signed May 1916" → Primary: Declassified British Foreign Office records - "King David mentioned in Tel Dan Inscription" → Primary: Archaeological artifact - "Hamas 1988 Covenant states X" → Primary: Published Hamas Charter

How to tag in text:

"The Ottoman Empire in 1913 controlled territory from Balkans to Arabian Peninsula [VERIFIED via Ottoman census records, maps, administrative documents]"

[SCHOLARLY CONSENSUS]

Use when: Claim is accepted across mainstream academic sources; no serious scholarly dispute; but not directly documented in single primary source

Examples: - "Jewish kingdoms existed in Levant 1000–586 BCE" → Consensus: Archaeology + texts agree; minor disputes on scale/dating, not existence - "Armenian Genocide killed ~1.5M (1915–1923)" → Consensus: Historians across traditions accept scale; some disputes on intent classification - "Palestinian nationalism crystallized in 20th century" → Consensus: Political scientists agree; Benedict Anderson framework standard - "Palestinian displacement 1948 involved multiple mechanisms" → Consensus: Historians document flight, evacuation orders, expulsion as distinct processes

How to tag in text:

"Armenian Genocide (1915–1923) killed approximately 1.5 million people [SCHOLARLY CONSENSUS — see International Association of Genocide Scholars consensus; Kévorkian, The Armenian Genocide (2011); Akçam]"

[ESTIMATED from multiple sources]

Use when: No single source gives exact figure; reliable sources overlap with ranges; estimate is reasonable synthesis

Examples: - "Palestinian refugees 1948: 600–750K" → Multiple sources (UN, Israeli, Palestinian estimates) cluster in this range - "Jewish population Ottoman Empire 1880: 300K–350K" → Ottoman census + Jewish community records give overlapping estimates - "Malnutrition in Gaza increased X percent since 2023" → WFP, OCHA, UN agencies report similar trends; exact percentages vary by methodology - "Hamas tax/tithe on aid: 10–20% in some areas" → NGO reports mention ranges; no single definitive figure

How to tag in text:

"Approximately 600,000–750,000 Palestinians fled or were expelled in 1948 [ESTIMATED from UN Mediator report (~726K), Israeli estimates (~520–700K), Morris (~700K); sources overlap on range]"

[DOCUMENTED via multiple independent sources]

Use when: Claim appears in 2+ independent, non-coordinated sources; reduces risk of single-source error

Examples: - "Israeli military expelled Palestinians from Lydda and Ramla (1948)" → Documented in: Israeli military records, Palestinian testimony, international NGO investigations, academic histories - "Humanitarian access to Gaza restricted since Oct 2023" → Documented in: OCHA reports, WFP assessments, HRW investigations, UN Human Rights Council - "Nazareth leadership negotiated with Israeli forces (1948)" → Documented in: Israeli archives, Palestinian testimony, contemporary accounts, academic histories

How to tag in text:

"Israeli military forces deliberately expelled Palestinians from Lydda and Ramla in 1948 [DOCUMENTED via Israeli military records, Palestinian testimony, international NGO investigations, academic histories]"

[PARTIALLY DISPUTED / Majority position held]

Use when: Claim is majority position among scholars/sources, but meaningful dispute exists; transparency about disagreement matters

Examples: - "Genocide label applies to Gaza operations" → International Court of Justice (January 2024): found the case sufficiently plausible to order provisional measures (paraphrase — the Court did NOT conclude genocide occurred); legal scholars divided - "Israeli intention toward Palestinians is/isn't genocidal" → Serious scholars disagree; majority view is NOT genocidal intent, but minority serious scholars argue otherwise - "Palestinian Arab leaders issued evacuation orders 1948" → Partially documented in Haifa; no credible contemporaneous documentation of a Mufti evacuation order for Jaffa; the Arab Higher Committee in most documented cases urged civilians to stay; historians split on scale/significance

How to tag in text:

"Whether Israeli operations constitute genocide under international law is contested among legal scholars. The International Court of Justice in January 2024 found the case sufficiently plausible to order provisional measures (paraphrase, not a direct quote) but did not conclude genocide occurred [PARTIALLY DISPUTED / Majority position: not concluded as genocide; minority serious scholars argue differently]"

[ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK / Not a factual claim]

Use when: Talking about methodology, reasoning, or interpretation—not factual claims

Examples: - Discussion of how to recognize propaganda (framework/logic, not fact) - Explanation of motte-and-bailey fallacy (rhetorical pattern, not factual claim about specific events) - Practice scenarios for teaching critical thinking (pedagogical, not factual) - Talking points for parents (guidance, not factual claims—though underlying facts ARE tagged)

How to tag in text:

"Motte-and-Bailey Fallacy Explanation [ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK]: This rhetorical pattern works by establishing a defensible position (motte) then extending to an indefensible outer claim (bailey)..."

CLAIM TYPES & HOW TO TAG THEM

Type 1: Historical Events

Structure: Who did what, when, where?
Examples: Wars, discoveries, political decisions, treaties
Tagging rule: Use [VERIFIED via primary sources] if direct documentation exists; [SCHOLARLY CONSENSUS] if mainstream agreement; [ESTIMATED from multiple sources] if numbers disputed

Bad tagging: "The Ottoman Empire fell in 1918" (no tag)
Good tagging: "The Ottoman Empire was defeated in 1918 and formally ended with the abolition of the sultanate in November 1922 [VERIFIED via Armistice of Mudros (October 30, 1918); abolition of the sultanate (November 1, 1922); Treaty of Lausanne (July 24, 1923)]"

Type 2: Demographic/Statistical Data

Structure: How many people? What percentage? How did it change?
Examples: Population counts, casualty figures, displacement numbers
Tagging rule: [ESTIMATED from multiple sources] if ranges exist; cite all sources contributing to estimate; note which sources agree/disagree

Bad tagging: "Palestinian refugees numbered 600,000" (no tag; implies certainty)
Good tagging: "Palestinian refugees numbered 600,000–750,000 [ESTIMATED from UN Mediator report (~726K), Israeli estimates (~520–700K), Morris (~700K); sources cluster in this range]"

Type 3: Modern/Contemporary Data

Structure: What is happening now? Current conditions?
Examples: 2024–2026 humanitarian figures, current population, ongoing conflicts
Tagging rule: [DOCUMENTED via multiple independent sources]; cite UN, NGO, government sources; note if data still evolving

Bad tagging: "25 million Sudanese face food insecurity (2024)" (no tag)
Good tagging: "Approximately 25 million Sudanese face food insecurity as of April 2024 [DOCUMENTED via WFP, OCHA, IPC assessments; figures updated monthly; current status available on ReliefWeb]"

Type 4: Institutional Positions

Structure: What does [organization] say? What is [group's] official position?
Examples: UN findings, Hamas Charter, Israeli military doctrine
Tagging rule: [VERIFIED via primary sources]; link to actual document

Bad tagging: "Hamas seeks destruction of Israel" (no tag)
Good tagging: "Hamas's 1988 Covenant includes language calling for destruction of Israel [VERIFIED via Hamas 1988 Covenant, Article 7; text available via the Avalon Project (Yale Law School) and archived copies]"

Type 5: Causal Claims

Structure: X happened BECAUSE of Y
Examples: "Malnutrition increased because of access restrictions"; "Displacement occurred due to military tactics"
Tagging rule: [DOCUMENTED via multiple independent sources] if widely accepted; [PARTIALLY DISPUTED] if disagreement exists; avoid false certainty

Bad tagging: "Malnutrition in Gaza is caused by Israeli access restrictions" (implies singular cause; false certainty)
Good tagging: "Malnutrition in Gaza increased since October 2023; contributing factors documented by UN sources include: (1) humanitarian access restrictions [DOCUMENTED via OCHA], (2) economic collapse [DOCUMENTED via WFP], (3) distribution challenges [DOCUMENTED via multiple NGOs]. Primary attribution to access barriers per OCHA; some sources note multi-factorial causes."

Type 6: Comparison Claims

Structure: Group A experienced X; Group B experienced Y; magnitude similar/different
Examples: "Jewish displacement ~850K; Palestinian displacement ~600K"; "Yemen casualties higher than Gaza per capita"
Tagging rule: Tag BOTH numbers separately; make comparison explicit

Bad tagging: "Jewish displacement was comparable to Palestinian displacement" (no tags; vague)
Good tagging: "Jewish displacement from Arab nations (1948–1978): approximately 850,000 forced emigrants [ESTIMATED from Israeli Ministry of Immigration, academic historians]; Palestinian displacement (1948): approximately 600,000–750,000 refugees [ESTIMATED from UN Mediator report, Israeli estimates, Morris]. Scale: comparable magnitude; different contexts (forced emigration vs. war displacement)."

TAG PLACEMENT RULES

Rule 1: Tag at claim-level, not document-level

Wrong: Tag appears only at top of doc: "This document is [VERIFIED]"
Right: Each factual claim tagged individually throughout text

Rule 2: Make source explicit in parentheses

Wrong: "Ottoman population was 40 million [VERIFIED]"
Right: "The Ottoman Empire nominally claimed approximately 40 million people in 1913 [ESTIMATED from Ottoman census records and academic estimates; the 1914 census within administered borders counted ~18.5–21M]"

Rule 3: For ranges, cite all contributing sources

Wrong: "Palestinian refugees: 600–750K [ESTIMATED]"
Right: "Palestinian refugees: 600,000–750,000 [ESTIMATED from UN Mediator report (~726K), Israeli estimates (~520–700K), Morris (~700K); sources overlap in this range]"

Rule 4: Tag disputed claims with "PARTIALLY DISPUTED"

Wrong: "Israeli actions constitute genocide" (tags as fact; ignores dispute)
Right: "Whether Israeli actions constitute genocide is contested among international legal scholars. The International Court of Justice in January 2024 found the case sufficiently plausible to order provisional measures (paraphrase, not a direct quote of the Court) but did not conclude genocide occurred [PARTIALLY DISPUTED / Majority legal position: not yet concluded as genocide; minority scholars argue otherwise; ICJ January 2024 order available]"

Rule 5: For analytical frameworks, use [ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK]

Wrong: Talking points in doc 18 tagged as [VERIFIED] (they're methods, not facts)
Right: "Talking Point 1: Separating Facts from Propaganda [ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK] — This conversational approach teaches critical thinking via these steps..."

SOURCES HIERARCHY (How to choose what to cite)

Tier 1: Primary Sources (Highest confidence)

  • Official government records (Ottoman archives, UN documents, Israeli military records)
  • Archaeological finds with peer-reviewed publication
  • Published treaties/charters/declarations
  • Eyewitness accounts from established historians
  • Census records

Example tagging: "[VERIFIED via Ottoman census records, Turkish State Archives]"

Tier 2: Peer-Reviewed Academic Sources

  • Published books by established historians (Cambridge Ancient History, Oxford series)
  • Peer-reviewed journal articles
  • UN agency reports (OCHA, WFP, UNHCR official publications)
  • Academic encyclopedias (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

Example tagging: "[SCHOLARLY CONSENSUS per The New Cambridge History of Islam, peer-reviewed archaeology journals]"

Tier 3: Credible Secondary Sources

  • Major news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, Guardian)
  • International NGOs (HRW, Amnesty International, MSF)
  • Think tanks with transparent methodology (Brookings, RAND, Carnegie)
  • UN-adjacent agencies (ReliefWeb aggregates official source data)

Example tagging: "[DOCUMENTED via HRW investigations, WFP reports, international NGO field assessments]"

Tier 4: Avoid (Too low confidence for public launch)

  • Social media claims without source attribution
  • Blog posts (unless written by established expert with credentials)
  • Opinion pieces presented as fact
  • Single-source claims without cross-validation

WHEN TO OMIT TAGS

Only for: Non-factual statements - Declarations of purpose: "This guide teaches..." - Framing statements: "The problem is..." - Instructions: "Use this framework to..." - Philosophical statements: "Critical thinking requires..."

Example — NO TAG NEEDED:

"The goal of this presentation is to provide verified historical context. [NO TAG — this is a declaration of purpose, not a factual claim]"

Example — TAG NEEDED:

"The Ottoman Empire nominally claimed approximately 40 million people in 1913. [ESTIMATED from Ottoman census records and academic estimates; the 1914 census within administered borders counted ~18.5–21M]"

EXAMPLE: Full Tagging in Action

BEFORE (No tags):

"The Jewish people have ancient historical roots in the Levant. The diaspora was forced expulsion, not abandonment. The Kingdom of Israel existed ~1000–586 BCE. Archaeological evidence confirms this. Jewish religious practice maintained identity across diaspora. Palestinians also have legitimate historical presence."

AFTER (Fully tagged):

"The Jewish people have ancient historical roots in the Levant [VERIFIED via archaeological record: Tel Dan Inscription, Tel Megiddo excavations, Jerusalem Temple Mount investigations; also confirmed via ancient texts including Hebrew Bible and Assyrian annals]. The destructions and dispersals of 586 BCE and 70–135 CE were coerced [VERIFIED via Roman historian Josephus (eyewitness account 70 CE), Roman sources, Babylonian records detailing the 586 BCE conquest]; the diaspora's overall growth was mixed, including earlier voluntary migration [PARTIALLY DISPUTED — the blanket "forced, not voluntary" characterization; mainstream scholarship holds there was no empire-wide Roman expulsion edict]. The Kingdom of Israel existed approximately 1000–586 BCE [SCHOLARLY CONSENSUS per Cambridge Ancient History, mainstream Levantine archaeology; minor scholarly disputes on dating/scale, not existence]. Archaeological evidence confirms this [DOCUMENTED via peer-reviewed excavations at Tel Megiddo, Tel Dan, Jerusalem; published in Journal of Ancient Near Eastern Religions, Tel Aviv journal]. Jewish religious practice maintained identity across diaspora [DOCUMENTED via Rabbinic literature (Mishnah, Talmud compiled 200–500 CE), liturgical texts, synagogue archaeology]. Palestinians also have legitimate historical presence [VERIFIED via Ottoman census records, British mandate census data, contemporary documentation]."

CHECKLIST FOR CLAUDE/AGENT

When applying tags:

  • [ ] Read entire sentence/paragraph with claim
  • [ ] Identify the factual assertion (what is being claimed?)
  • [ ] Determine claim type (historical event, demographic, institutional position, etc.)
  • [ ] Find primary/secondary source supporting it
  • [ ] Select appropriate tag category
  • [ ] Write tag with explicit source attribution in parentheses
  • [ ] Check: Does tag appear WITH source info, not floating?
  • [ ] Check: Are competing/disputed claims marked [PARTIALLY DISPUTED]?
  • [ ] Check: Are analytical frameworks marked [ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK]?
  • [ ] Move to next claim

CHANGELOG — v2 (July 16, 2026)

Corrections per DECISIONS_RULINGS.md (Decision 15) and CONSOLIDATED_REVIEW.md S4. The original at C:\Users\DDD\Ottoman_ME_Presentation\A_VERIFICATION_TAGGING_RULES.md is unmodified.

  1. Armenian Genocide example tag (former line 37): "Cambridge Ancient History, Oxford Middle East historiography" (CAH covers antiquity — wrong period) replaced with correct genocide scholarship: International Association of Genocide Scholars consensus; Kévorkian, The Armenian Genocide (2011); Akçam. (S4 #2)
  2. 1948 Palestinian refugee source lists (three occurrences — [ESTIMATED] tag example, Type 2 example, Rule 3 example): replaced "UNRWA records (~650K), Israeli military data (~700K), Palestinian health authority estimates (~600K)" — the "Palestinian health authority" attribution is not a real/period-appropriate 1948 source — with the rulings-table contributing sources: UN Mediator report (~726K), Israeli estimates (~520–700K), Morris (~700K). Type 6 example source list aligned likewise.
  3. ICJ January 2024 (three occurrences — [PARTIALLY DISPUTED] examples and Rule 4): the phrase "plausible allegations warrant investigation" was presented as if quoting the Court; reworded as an explicit paraphrase (the Court found plausibility and ordered provisional measures; it did not conclude genocide). (S4 #16 applied upstream)
  4. Evacuation-orders example: original stated the orders were "Documented in some cases (Jaffa, Haifa)"; per ruling R1, Haifa is only partially documented, there is no credible contemporaneous documentation of a Mufti evacuation order for Jaffa, and the AHC in most documented cases urged civilians to stay.
  5. Type 1 "good tagging" example: "Treaty of Lausanne, November 24, 1923" corrected — Lausanne was signed July 24, 1923; sultanate abolished November 1, 1922 (Armistice of Mudros, October 30, 1918, added for the 1918 defeat).
  6. Type 4 example: "available on Hamas official website" replaced with "text available via the Avalon Project (Yale Law School) and archived copies" per the corpus-wide source-integrity ruling.
  7. Ottoman ~40M examples (Rule 2 and "TAG NEEDED" example): retagged from [VERIFIED] to [ESTIMATED] with "nominally claimed" wording per ruling R3 (the 1914 census within administered borders counted ~18.5–21M).
  8. Tier 2 example tag: "Cambridge Middle East History" is not a real series title; replaced with The New Cambridge History of Islam.
  9. Full-tagging example: "The diaspora was forced expulsion, not abandonment [VERIFIED...]" reworded per ruling R5 — documented destructions/dispersals (586 BCE; 70–135 CE) tagged VERIFIED; the blanket "forced, not voluntary" characterization marked [PARTIALLY DISPUTED]; the nonexistent-as-cited "Roman chronicles" blanket support removed in favor of Josephus/Roman sources for the documented events.

End Verification Tagging Rules (v2)